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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."