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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.